Throughout the past year, our mission at the Bellona Environmental Transparency Center has focused on two key, but intertwined issues—nuclear and radiation safety as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, and the worldwide influence of Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, which itself is actively involved in the war and has participated in the occupation of a Ukrainian nuclear power plant.

We have studied issues of nuclear safety for 30 years, first within Russia, where one of our representatives chaired the Public Council’s Environmental Commission of Rosatom, influencing the corporation’s environmental decisions. Then—after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine made our work in the country impossible—from Vilnius, where we continue to identify and address issues of radioactive waste management and radiation safety.

This new geography demanded we adjust our approach. But now, two years after this shift, we remain one of a vanishingly small number of analytical teams throughout the world with expertise embedded in the Russian-speaking context.

Over the past year, we published three reports, 11 nuclear digests, and 34 articles in English and Russian. These publications covered nuclear energy issues, Rosatom’s role during the war and in international energy markets, and nuclear safety at facilities during the war in Ukraine.

We also devoted no small part of our analysis to developments in the Russian Arctic. This stems from our long commitment to the Murmansk area, where, before the war, Bellona maintained one of its oldest offices. After all major environmental organizations were expelled from Russia and pressure increased on local eco-activists and indigenous communities, there are scant few left to document, analyze and contribute to the solution of environmental problems in this region—thus our continued focus.

Immersed in the Russian-speaking context, Bellona staff understand that, despite sanctions and growing international isolation, the Russian Arctic will see continued exploitation by oil, gas and mineral concerns, as well as environmental batterings from increased shipping along the Northern Sea Route. Sunken and submerged nuclear and radiation-hazardous objects are also part of the Arctic region’s complicated environmental profile.

This means environmental risks will inevitably increase while other Arctic states have fewer resources and tools for international pressure. Climate change and pollution from activities in the Russian North could negatively impact the entire Arctic region. Someone had to continue addressing these issues and speaking out in the West. We were among the few to take this mission on.

In 2024, we published two reports, released 10 Arctic digests, and authored 17 articles in two languages. These analyzed factors related to Russia’s activities in the Arctic, highlighting pollution risks and their influence on global climate change. During this time, we built expertise and found our voice in the media.

Key Themes Analyzed by Our Experts in 2024:

Nuclear and Radiation Safety and Rosatom’s Role in Energy Markets

• Nuclear safety issues raised during the war were addressed at a forum at Bellona’s Oslo office, entitled “Russia, Ukraine, and Rosatom during the War,” in early 2024. This event brought together our experts, as well as outside analysts, and journalists from Norway.

“We are currently witnessing a full-scale war in a country with nuclear facilities, under conditions where international cooperation on nuclear safety no longer exists,” stated Bellona founder Frederic Hauge during his opening remarks.

Risks of Restarting Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)

• The largest nuclear plant in Europe, occupied by Russian forces in 2022, remains a concern. We conducted an analysis and presented a report on the technical and political aspects of a potential ZNPP restart. Throughout the year, we monitored and wrote about developments at and around the plant in our nuclear digests and articles.

Monitoring Nuclear Safety Events Related to Russia and Ukraine

• Following Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region on August 6, Bellona evaluated the risks and provided warnings about the  potential consequences of a seizure or attack on the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

The Role of the IAEA in Times of War

• In our latest report, we analyzed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s actions throughout the Ukraine crisis, stipulating that its existence is insufficient to prevent attacks on civilian nuclear facilities. This is due to the agency’s dependence on its 178 member states, including Russia, which limits its ability to criticize, investigate, or prevent actions threatening nuclear and radiation safety.

Review of Nuclear Legacy Sites in the Russian Arctic

• Bellona also prepared an overview of developments at nuclear legacy sites in the Russian Arctic in 2022-2023. This included analyzing activities at the former military base in Andreyev Bay which is home to much spent nuclear fuel from submarines, and assessing the condition of nuclear and radiation-hazardous objects scuttled by the Soviets in Arctic seas.
• We summarized interim results and discussed the consequences for nuclear safety projects following the announcement of Russia’s official withdrawal from the International Agreement on the Multilateral Nuclear Environmental Program in the Russian Federation (MNEPR), ratified by Russia in 2003. The agreement regulated the use of billions of dollars in international funding from the U.S., EU member states, and other countries to address the nuclear legacy of the Soviet Union on Russian territory.
• Throughout the year, Bellona monitored changes in global nuclear fuel production and supply chains, particularly measures by the U.S. and several EU countries to reduce dependency on Russian imports. Bellona experts believe that, due to the political situation and the war in Ukraine, the nuclear fuel market for Soviet-designed reactors in the EU will undergo significant changes over the next five years. The volume of enriched uranium purchased by the U.S. is also expected to decrease.
• Nevertheless, preparing for upcoming changes, the EU purchased Russian nuclear fuel worth €686 million in 2023, doubling its imports. We were the first to analyze this process, publishing a detailed report on the topic at the start of the year. Similar transformations are occurring in the international uranium market. In the first half of 2024, President Joe Biden signed a law banning imports of Russian enriched uranium into the U.S. Earlier, it was announced that five American companies are resuming uranium mining in Texas, Wyoming, Arizona, and Utah. Our experts believe the new U.S. law could become the most significant restriction for Rosatom.

Analysis of Rosatom’s International Markets

Bellona experts also analyzed Rosatom’s presence in other international markets. It is likely that Moscow will remain India’s largest—and only foreign—partner in the nuclear sector. Furthermore, the corporation is making significant efforts to participate in the construction of nuclear power plants in former Soviet states and many other places around the world, and is currently building reactors in a host of countries both in Europe and in Asia.

Environmental Protection in the Arctic

Environmental Protection in the Arctic

Environmental issues in the Arctic returned to the forefront as Norway assumed the Arctic Council chairmanship following Russia’s tenure. Bellona, as an Oslo-based organization, responded immediately. At the beginning of the year, our representatives met with the Council Chair Morten Høglund. Shortly after the meeting, the Clean Arctic Alliance, of which Bellona is a member, published an open letter emphasizing the need to reduce black carbon emissions and urging Norway, as the Council’s chair, to facilitate the adoption of measures to achieve this goal.

At the beginning  of the year, Bellona published an English-language report on the Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, assessing its production and use as marine fuel in the Russian Arctic. We examined the impact of international sanctions on the future development of LNG extraction. Our analysis revealed that EU countries continued actively importing Russian fossil fuels, making the EU one of Russia’s trading partners indirectly financing the war.

According to our report, the largest Russian gas producer, Gazprom, is simultaneously the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic, primarily methane, significantly contributing to global climate change.

Arctic Development and Resource Extraction

• We prepared a comprehensive review of key documents defining Russian Arctic policy until 2035. The region, occupying nearly one-third of Russia’s territory, operates under laws distinct from the rest of the country. The extractive industries in the Russian Arctic are developing rapidly, increasing the burden on fragile northern ecosystems. Russia exports resources extracted from the region to fund the war.
• Every month, we tracked and published updates on changes in Russian legislation, industrial company plans, events on the Northern Sea Route (NSR), international sanctions, and accidents in the Russian Arctic. The NSR is becoming increasingly opaque, with shadow fleet tankers transporting oil and LNG along the route, data about which is absent from official Northern Sea Route Administration records.
• In September, we wrote an open letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre ahead of his visit to China warning him about the climate, environmental, and political risks of using the NSR and urged him to convey to Chinese authorities that Norway does not support the development of shipping along the route.

Black Carbon and Arctic Shipping Fuel

In mid-summer, with some exceptions, a voluntary agreement banning the use and transport of heavy fuel oil (HFO) in the Arctic, developed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a UN body regulating global shipping, came into effect. The agreement is set to be fully implemented by 2029. The only Arctic country that did not join the agreement and has not announced its own plans to ban HFO in the Arctic is Russia. From 2015 to 2019, black carbon emissions in the Arctic increased by 85%, as reported in our articles and reports.

The Scale of Bellona’s Activities Today

Today, leading media outlets and think tank experts reach out to us for a better  understanding of developments in nuclear safety or the Russian Arctic. Through collaboration with journalists, we managed to share our analyses with the audiences of 30 different media outlets over the past year, with a combined reach of several million people. These include printed interviews, articles, our own materials on other platforms, podcast appearances, and YouTube channel discussions. Among others, our opinions and analysis appeared in Foreign Policy, Der Spiegel, The Barents Observer, The Moscow Times, Deutsche Welle, Meduza, and The Insider.

Our materials were cited by 52 publications, including Politico, Nucnet, Forbes, NL Times, and others. Our analysis appeared in 17 academic and expert publications and digests, including at the The Stimson Center, Russia Matters, Nuclear Transparency Watch, The Arctic Institute, the World Nuclear Report, NATO, the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, and other think tanks. The combined audience for our publications includes hundreds of thousands of English- and Russian-speaking readers across Europe and Ukraine, many of whom are engaged in addressing political, economic, and intellectual challenges related to state security, risk forecasting, and mitigating environmental threats.

Our nuclear and Arctic digests, with an open rate of over 60%, are read monthly by more than 180 experts, including NGO staff, academics, intelligence officers, think tank analysts, advisors, and officials from Western governments. Bellona.org, our main organizational website, attracted 236,000 unique users last year, generating 500,000 page views. Our articles on nuclear safety rank among the top publications on these topics.

Over the past year, we hosted six presentation events with a combined audience of more than 250 experts and held over ten meetings with stakeholders interested in the issues Bellona covers. Our experts participated in seven specialized events, including the Arctic Circle Forum in Berlin; the joint Fjum and Presseclub Concordia seminar, “The Struggle for the Arctic: Climate Change, Economy, Security. What Happens in the Arctic Affects Everyone,” in Vienna; the COP29 Climate Conference; the Nuclear Energy and Climate Change Seminar in Prague; the 9th European Nuclear Industry Congress 2024 (ENIC 2024); the PWR Prague Conference; and the Arctic Frontiers Conference in Tromsø, Norway, among others.

Connecting with Russian Civil Society

Following the closure of our offices in Russia, we strive to maintain ties with Russian civil society. Despite repression, censorship, and our organization’s designation as “undesirable” by Russian authorities, we continue to inform the public about the environmental consequences of the war in Ukraine and the state of Russia’s environmental community. Some posts on our Russian-language Telegram channel reach tens of thousands of views. Our Russian-language newsletters are read by more than 250 people, some of whom remain in Russia and who know that Bellona materials are officially banned.

We continue to publish the journal Ecology and Law, one of the oldest environmental journals, originally produced by Bellona in Russia since 2002, and since 2022, in Lithuania. The journal addresses issues related to environmental protection and citizens’ environmental rights, featuring reports, articles, and interviews with experts.

The journal has more than 100 subscribers, with print runs of 200 to 450 copies, which are quickly distributed at our events. The entire archive is available as PDF files on a dedicated website, where issues can be downloaded at any time. In May this year, we presented a new issue in Berlin, focusing on Russia’s environmental movement, and at the end of the year, we dedicated the journal to environmental crimes. Its presentation is planned for early 2025.

Goals and Plans for 2025

We plan to continue analyzing information and publishing articles and reports on environmental issues in the Russian Arctic, nuclear and radiation safety in Russia and Ukraine. We will monitor Rosatom’s projects in Europe and worldwide. We will also advocate for the public’s right to access reliable information about the environment.

A key goal of our office is to leverage our knowledge of the Russian context and experience in international environmental work, as well as insights from our colleagues in Bellona offices in Oslo, Brussels, and Berlin, to provide the global community with the most relevant and objective information on the issues Bellona addresses today.

Bellona is part of global efforts to ensure a safe and environmentally responsible future. We look forward to potential collaboration with those reading this text and financial support for our projects from major donors who find the issues Bellona experts work on to be important.

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