Vilnius, Lithuania—Experts from the Bellona Environmental Transparency Center have analyzed Eurostat data for the first 10 months of 2024, which recorded a decline in the purchase of nuclear materials by EU countries from Russia. Purchases of nuclear fuel for Soviet-designed VVER reactors, after doubling in 2023, almost returned to 2022 levels, within the range of about 300 to 360 tons.

This suggests that operators of European nuclear power plants have secured alternative stockpiles, thus allowing them to transition to new suppliers, which will likely further decrease purchases of fuel from Russia in coming years. According to our estimates, by 2030, nuclear fuel supplies from Russia to EU countries could drop by at least 60% from 2022 levels – falling to below 100 tons per year. 

Purchases of enriched uranium by EU countries has also significantly dropped. In the first 10 months of 2024, only French companies imported low-enriched uranium (LEU) from Russia. About 30 tons were brought directly into France, and up to 70 tons were purchased by a plant owned by the French company Advanced Nuclear Fuels (ANF) located in Lingen, Germany.

Total purchases in the first 10 months of last year amounted to less than 100 tons of LEU, more than twice as low as in 2023, when the volume was approximately 250 tons, and significantly lower than in 2022 and 2021, which ranged between 430 to 480 tons. Meanwhile, Russia’s share in the EU’s LEU supply segment fell to 15% in 2024, whereas before 2022, it occasionally exceeded 50%. 

“Rosatom’s competitors, such as Urenco and Orano, are fully taking over the European enrichment market, which remains one of the largest in the world, and are investing in new capacity expansions,” says Dmitry Gorchakov, a nuclear advisor with the Bellona Environmental Transparency Center. 

The 2024 data is not yet complete, as Eurostat has not published figures for November and December, which could potentially increase Russia’s total annual import figures. However, it is unlikely that these two months will significantly alter the overall conclusion that Europe is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian enriched uranium. 

Context:

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU countries have accelerated their transition to alternative suppliers in the nuclear fuel sector. By 2024, all EU purchasers of Russian nuclear fuel had already signed contracts with alternative suppliers, and some, such as Bulgaria and Finland, have begun loading alternative fuel. Therefore, no new peaks in purchases of nuclear fuel from Russia are expected.

Given the announced and already implemented plans to expand the capacities of Urenco and Orano in the U.S. and the EU, Western countries will be able to reduce their dependence on Russian uranium enrichment services by at least threefold in the next five years, to below 10% of total purchases.

Contacts: 

Dmitry Gorchakov, nuclear advisor at the Bellona nuclear project: etc@bellona.org  

About us:

The Bellona Environmental Transparency Center, based in Vilnius, is an investigative group within the Bellona Foundation that operates as an independent non-profit solution-oriented environmental NGO. Our team monitors and analyzes Russia’s environmental impact within and across borders with a special focus on nuclear and radiation safety and security, climate change, and industrial pollution in the Russian Arctic. Our websites: etc.bellona.org and ru.bellona.org  On 18 April 2023 the Russian general prosecutor’s office declared Bellona to be an “undesirable” organization.