As the global climate crisis worsens, the Russian regime is expanding its grip on global trade and boosting natural resource extraction in the Arctic, leading to increased funding for projects along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The enormous increase in shipping that will accompany these moves will further endanger a fragile ecosystem and raise the stakes for potential environmentally damaging accidents—to say nothing of militarization in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The purpose of this report is to summarize the publicly available information about the NSR and assess the environmental and political risks of increased shipping. We examine the natural features of the NSR’s waters, the legal framework around navigation in the NSR, state plans for its utilization, current data on cargo traffic and industrial complexes using the NSR to export their products, the state of search-and-rescue infrastructure along the route, and environmental risks associated with increased shipping and expanded resource extraction in the Arctic zone. It also addresses the impact of international sanctions on companies and industries linked to the NSR.

We do not address issues of nuclear and radioactive waste dumping in the Russian Arctic unless directly related to the NSR, nor do we analyze the increased Russian military presence in the Arctic or the testing of new weapons on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, which Bellona has done elsewhere.

In Russian strategic documents, the Arctic seas, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and the continental shelf are referred to as key national priorities, critically important for the country’s economy and security. In practice, this means resource extraction in the Arctic, primarily oil and gas, as well as securing Russia’s geopolitical dominance across the entire Arctic region.

Russia’s plans for developing Arctic territories and the Northern Sea Route were on the upswing even before the start of the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, and they have not abated during the three years of war and international sanctions. International economic sanctions targeting liquefied natural gas projects, as well as oil and mineral resource extraction in Russia’s Arctic zone, have significantly slowed down the development of the continental shelf and the industrial growth of the Arctic coast, but have not completely halted these efforts.

Under these conditions, environmental and climate concerns receive scant attention, sharply increasing the risk of accidents with serious environmental consequences and inadequate or delayed response efforts. The lack of transparency regarding negative environmental impacts and the emergence of a shadow fleet of oil tankers are clear indicators of this problem.

The international community must assess the risks of Russia’s Arctic policies and develop measures aimed at preventing the realization of Russia’s uncontrolled industrial ambitions and mitigating environmental and climate risks emanating from Russia.

Our new report will be of interest to policymakers, advisors, officials, NGO staff, researchers, and journalists who are concerned with the Arctic situation and its challenges.

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